From June 23 to 24, 2011, the 2011 China Commercial Vehicle Development Exchange Symposium was held in Beijing. In May 2011, domestic commercial vehicle production and sales reached 310,000 units and 340,000 units, respectively, down 20% and 14% year-on-year respectively, and declining by 19% and 17% respectively month-on-month. The year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates showed a trend of amplification, and the commercial vehicle industry The development situation is more severe, mainly reflected in:
First, the macroeconomic control policy has shifted from an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy. Inhibiting inflation has become the primary task of the current macroeconomy;
Second, with the successive completion of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus economic investment project, the central government gradually withdrew, the overall investment in fixed assets has slowed down, and the growth momentum of the commercial vehicle market has begun to weaken;
Thirdly, the gradual withdrawal of policies such as automobile going to the countryside, trade-in replacement and so on have a certain impact on the sales of commercial vehicles. Fourth, tightened policies on the fuel consumption management policies of commercial vehicles, commercial vehicle access management policies, and production consistency management policies. Step by step implementation will cool down the rapid development of the commercial vehicle market.
Commercial Vehicles to Adapt to Changes in the Profit Model of the Transportation Industry
In recent years, the market demand environment of the commercial vehicle industry, policy and regulatory environment, market competition, and the transportation industry itself have undergone major changes. According to the market scale, the demand for medium-heavy trucks in China reached 1.29 million in 2010, accounting for 49% of the world's medium-heavy trucks. From the perspective of policies and regulations, the central government has become more and more rigorous in law enforcement and has also become more effective. For example, in terms of safety, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has inspected the relevant safety technical specifications and protective devices to a great extent, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry in the future. From the perspective of the service targets, the transportation industry of medium and heavy truck services is also undergoing changes, and the transportation industry is constantly moving. Intensification, efficiency, specialization, and intelligence, the inherent profitability and profitability of the transportation industry are changing.
According to Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle's own analysis of medium and heavy truck customers, the number of newly added customers is close to 50% each year, and more and more customers are retained. In the future, the number of customers redeemed may be more and more, and old customers will have more purchasing experience and purchasing power. It will get stronger and stronger. Huang Gang said that the more important change is the concentration of industry customers. Large clients such as logistics companies will become the dominant players in the development of the industry, and the purchase decisions of logistics companies will be more rational, and prices will certainly not be the only factor determining the purchase.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Planning and Technology Development Department discussed its views from the perspective of resource integration in the heavy-duty truck industry chain. The current domestic heavy-duty truck industry has many problems in the integration of the industry chain: more competition and less cooperation, more vertical integration The horizontal integration is insufficient, the information sharing mechanism among the heavy truck manufacturers is not perfect, and the mutual cooperation is not enough, which increases the trial and error costs of the manufacturers; the parts suppliers are generally small, the research and development level is low, and the layout is severely dispersed and the clustering effect is not formed. The OEMs still can't get rid of the dependence on foreign technology, and still rely on foreign technology in some core components and parts, especially on engines and electronic control systems. Domestic manufacturers cannot independently complete the research and development of products; the domestic logistics industry is low. The efficiency has led to the lack of effective demand for heavy truck products.
From the perspective of industrial chain integration, it is necessary to highlight the leading role and radiation effects of core enterprises in the process of industrial chain integration, and to use the integrated advantages of integration to achieve the driving effects and resource integration effects of other key links. In addition, the heavy truck industry chain must not only focus on cooperation, but also focus on the points. In the process of centralizing the integration of enterprise core resources, some parts and components links that are not relevant to the core industry and have low added value can be separated from the enterprise through splitting methods or outsourced to other enterprises.
The practical results show that the core technology cannot be exchanged. Therefore, the development strategy of China's heavy-duty truck industry: it is necessary to introduce, but also to be independent, the component manufacturers must follow the development path of the group, and the entire industry should actively explore modular production. Way, deepen the combination of production, education and research, and take the road of internationalization.
Low homogeneity will not win the future market
In the eyes of foreigners, especially in the eyes of foreigners in Western developed countries, their impression of Chinese manufacturing is often low, but it is also low quality. The government can provide a healthy and fair environment for the industry to adhere to technological innovation, brand and quality, lean management, customer service, and globalization. At the same time, laws and regulations must also be adapted to China's national conditions and suitable for China's specific environment. Promote the development of China's auto industry. At the same time, they also put forward their own views on related auto companies: to deal with laws and regulations, the industry should be self-disciplined, and it is necessary for companies to coordinate and develop healthily. Coping with laws and regulations is not for the government, but self-regulation to comply with national laws and regulations.
Anhui Valin Motors Co., Ltd. believes that in the next few years, the demand growth of domestic high-end heavy trucks will be faster than the past, and the market share will gradually increase, but whether the new market share is occupied by foreign brands or upgraded The occupation of independent brands will depend on the policy orientation and support of companies in R&D. At the same time, the question of what quality commercial vehicles are needed in the future market is proposed. The answer given by Valin is the intermediate standard: that is, the price of cars should be increased by 20%-30% compared with the current level, and humanization and comfort must be greatly improved. Environmental protection and safety should have relatively clear and substantive requirements.
For the market this year and the future, experts have not been too pessimistic. China Automotive Technology and Research Center believes that the commercial vehicle industry as a property of production data is closely related to the country's macroeconomic construction. Combined with the country's comprehensive judgment of medium and long-term planning, the commercial vehicle market still has good growth opportunities, especially in the next five years. In 2011, the domestic commercial vehicle market will maintain or slightly lower than the 2010 level, reaching 4.3 million vehicles, and this increase in market share will become the focus of competition.
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